The idea
Apply a measurable forecasting approach to international football rather than treating prediction as punditry.
The connection
The distinctive work lies in data selection, model comparison and evaluation. A confident prediction is less useful than a calibrated probability whose track record can be inspected.
System design
The following structure makes the project concept inspectable and defines the implementation to demonstrate.
What would prove it
Use a chronological backtest in which each forecast sees only information available at that date. Publish sample size, baseline performance and calibration rather than selecting only successful predictions.
The next complete milestone
As the original 2026 World Cup context has passed, the useful next deliverable is a retrospective evaluation or a clearly dated new forecasting scope. Preserve the original forecasts if they exist; do not reconstruct them and label them pre-event predictions.
Project record
A forecasting engine built for the 2026 World Cup, using calibrated prediction models rather than vibes-based punditry — an earlier sibling to CourtVision's approach, applied to football.
Source: the published APX project register, recovered 28 September 2026. This study explains the design direction and evaluation path; it is not a fresh audit of the product implementation.